WE ASKED AI TO REPLACE DONALD TRUMP. WE GOT A PLAYBOOK TO END THE GOVT SHUTDOWN, BRING PEACE TO THE UKRAINE, AND RESTORE HUMANITARIAN AID.
CHATGPT 5: Here’s a focused, realistic playbook—what the U.S. President can do now and over the next ~90 days—on all three fronts. I separate what is legally possible from what is politically necessary, and I cite the controlling law or current facts where it matters.
1) End a U.S. government shutdown (or prevent the next one)
What the law allows / constrains
During a lapse, agencies are bound by the Antideficiency Act; only “excepted” safety-of-life and property functions continue. Everything else stops until Congress appropriates. The White House/OMB can only issue implementation guidance; it cannot appropriate. Government Accountability Office+2Congress.gov+2
Immediate actions (48–72 hours)
Demand a clean continuing resolution (CR)—publicly and privately—and pledge to sign it. Keep policy riders out of the CR; promise a separate track for them in regular order. (Shifts the fight off the shutdown trigger.) Backgrounders from CRS and Brookings make clear that shutdowns end only with enacted appropriations or a CR. Congress.gov+1
Force principals-only negotiations at the White House (Speaker, Majority/Minority Leaders, Approps chairs/ranking) with a pre-written two-page “no surprises” CR the President will sign.
Offer a bipartisan framework for full-year bills: defense/non-defense toplines consistent with last enacted caps, plus a structured riders process (amendments or stand-alone votes).
Use OMB/OPM to minimize collateral damage (clear, rapid guidance on excepted services; protect critical payments tied to safety-of-life/property). The White House+1
Next 30–90 days
Back an automatic CR (“ACR”) reform—a statutory fallback that keeps government funded at current levels if Congress misses deadlines (several bipartisan proposals exist).
Publicly commit to vetoing poison-pill riders that attach to stopgaps (credible commitment reduces brinkmanship).
Message with specifics: quantify program-by-program impacts using GAO/CRS frames so constituents pressure holdouts. Congress.gov
2) Stop the war in Ukraine (realistic endgame: freeze the fighting + lock in Ukraine’s security and reconstruction)
Ground truth to respect
The U.S. cannot unilaterally “end” the war; it can alter incentives (security guarantees, aid, sanctions, and a credible off-ramp). Current debates in 2025 revolve around a front-line freeze/ceasefire combined with longer-term security and financial guarantees for Kyiv. Al Jazeera+1
The G7/EU already launched a $50B loan for Ukraine backed by profits on immobilized Russian sovereign assets; the EU is exploring a larger “reparations loan” concept to extend support. Use this architecture as leverage. Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood+3U.S. Department of the Treasury+3Reuters+3
Immediate actions (30 days)
Table a Ceasefire Framework to Kyiv, EU, Turkey, and the UN:
Core: monitored ceasefire along current contact lines; OSCE/UN observers; 1:1 POW/child returns; rolling humanitarian corridors; grain/Black Sea commerce guarantees.
Conditionality: sanctions snap-back schedule tied to verified de-escalation; sanctions tightening (incl. secondary sanctions) if Russia violates.
Security backstop: a U.S.-EU security package for Ukraine (air defense, ISR, training, and industrial base financing) that persists regardless of the ceasefire holding, to deter renewed attacks.
Lock finances: activate the G7 ERA loan tranches and coordinate with EU on the reparations-loan track so Ukraine’s budget, air defense munitions, and energy grid repairs are funded through 2026–27. (Treasury, EU, and RFE/RL detail the mechanisms.) U.S. Department of the Treasury+2European External Action Service+2
Next 90 days
Publish a sanctions-relief roadmap (what Russia would need to do, stepwise, to earn limited relief), keeping Crimea/sovereignty issues in a deferred political track while civilians are protected now; this matches the pragmatic “freeze then negotiate” sequencing discussed publicly. Al Jazeera
Transfer or capitalize frozen Russian assets’ earnings at scale (coordinate with EU/Euroclear profits policy) to cover Ukraine’s air defense, energy winterization, and reconstruction start—making clear Russia ultimately owes reparations. Financial Times+1
3) Address global humanitarian crises (with emphasis on children)
Current picture
OCHA’s Global Humanitarian Overview 2025 targets ~178–188 million people with needs > $44–46B, with persistent funding gaps; UNICEF’s 2025 appeal seeks $9.9B to reach ~109M children. Regional data show sharply rising child risk, e.g., in MENA. UNICEF+4Humanitarian Action+4Humanitarian Action+4
Immediate actions (30 days)
Announce a White House Humanitarian Surge:
$X supplemental for UNICEF/WFP/UNHCR/ICRC via USAID/State (prioritize malnutrition treatment, cholera prevention, safe water, and protection services for children).
Pre-authorize multi-year, flexible funding so agencies can scale predictably (not month-to-month).
Stand up an Interagency Famine Prevention Cell (NSC/USAID/USDA/DoD logistics) to unblock corridors, pre-position RUTF, and leverage DOD air/sea lift in tight windows.
Leverage sanctions & diplomacy to keep humanitarian exemptions frictionless (licenses, banking channels, insurer assurances) so food/medicine move even in sanctioned theaters; publish general licenses and safe-harbor guidance.
Match private capital: expand Development Finance Corporation (DFC) guarantees for water, cold chain, and clinic build-outs in frontline states.
Next 90 days
Create an automatic U.S. “Children in Crisis” trigger: when IPC Acute Food Insecurity hits Phase 4/5 or child wasting >15%, automatic release of contingency funds + DOD logistics authority.
Champion a G7 “Kids First” pledge: earmark a fixed share of the G7 Russian-assets profits stream for pediatric health, nutrition, water/sanitation, and education-in-emergencies (politically saleable and fast to set up given existing ERA mechanics). Reuters+1
Why this works
Shutdowns end with appropriations, not executive improvisation; the President’s leverage is agenda-setting, a clean CR ask, and credible veto/negotiation posture—in line with the Antideficiency Act and OMB/OPM practice. Government Accountability Office+2Congress.gov+2
Ukraine: the least-bad near-term outcome is a monitored freeze plus hard-backed security/financing for Kyiv; the assets/loan architecture already exists to fund it. U.S. Department of the Treasury+2Enlargement and Eastern Neighbourhood+2
Humanitarian aid: child-focused investments have the highest mortality impact per dollar; OCHA/UNICEF quantify both the need and the gap, which U.S. leadership can narrow quickly with flexible, predictable money. Humanitarian Action+1
Below is a draft Oval Office Action Memo for the President.
TO: The President
FROM: [Senior Advisor for Strategy & Policy]
DATE: [Within 48 hours]
SUBJECT: Urgent Action Plan — Government Funding, Ukraine & Humanitarian Aid
I. Purpose
To execute a coordinated, high-impact strategy across three linked domains:
Ending the U.S. federal government funding lapse.
Securing a near-term cessation of hostilities in Ukraine while locking in long-term security and financial support.
Deploying an accelerated humanitarian aid surge—particularly for children—targeting rapidly rising global crisis zones.
II. Key Decisions for Immediate Action (Within 72 Hours)
Government Funding
Authorize the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to work with the Congressional Appropriations leadership to transmit a draft clean Continuing Resolution (CR) to Congress. You pledge to sign it immediately if passed.
Publicly declare: “I will sign a stop-gap funding bill with no new policy riders; let us move the policy debates to regular order.”
Direct OMB/OPM to issue agency guidance within 24 hours delineating excepted vs. non-excepted operations in case of any remaining lapse.
Ukraine Conflict
Instruct the National Security Council (NSC) to convene with the Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, and Treasury Secretary to table a “Ceasefire Framework Proposal” to be shared with 🇺🇦 Ukraine, 🇪🇺 EU, 🇹🇷 Turkey and the UN in the next 10 calendar days.
Contact line freeze monitored by Organization for Security and Co‑operation in Europe / United Nations.
1:1 POW/child-return commitments, humanitarian corridors, grain/Black Sea export guarantee.
Direct Treasury to mobilize the multilateral asset-profit structure (G7/ERA) to release tranche 1 funding to Ukraine within 30 days for air-defense, energy-grid repairs, and budget support.
Humanitarian Aid (Children & Crisis Zones)
Issue a White House directive launching the “Children & Crisis Surge” initiative: allocate via United States Agency for International Development (USAID) an initial supplemental of US $1.5 billion within 30 days, earmarked for: severe acute malnutrition, water/sanitation, cholera treatment, protection services for children in conflict/hunger zones.
Establish an Interagency Famine Prevention Cell (NSC/USAID/USDA/DoD logistics) with standing authority to deploy DoD air/sea lift pre-positioned assets.
Direct Treasury and OFAC to publish an updated humanitarian-exemptions licensing package by end of month, ensuring food/medicine flows in sanctioned contexts.
III. Metrics & Milestones
Government Funding: CR enacted or full-year appropriations bills introduced and passed in House & Senate by [date + 30 days].
Ukraine: Cease-fire framework delivered to partners within 10 days; tranche 1 funding obligated within 30 days; full security package commitments announced within 90 days.
Humanitarian Aid: Initial US $1.5 b Obligation executed within 30 days; launch of “Children in Crisis” automatic trigger mechanism within 90 days; G7 “Kids First” pledge secured by next G7 summit.
IV. Risk & Mitigation
Shutdown risk: Legislators may demand policy riders. Mitigation: publicly commit to veto any CR with extraneous riders; bring public attention to program impacts to drive constituent pressure.
Ukraine freeze risk: Russia or its proxies might violate the cease-fire rapidly, undermining credibility. Mitigation: clear sanctions snap-back schedule; sustained air-defense packages to Kyiv to maintain deterrence.
Aid delivery risk: Logistics bottlenecks, donor fatigue, sanction-blockers. Mitigation: activate DoD logistics surge, pre-position inventory, harmonize banking/humanitarian licences, amplify U.S. leadership in donor coordination.
V. Messaging Strategy
Core message: “America leads when it funds our government, ends wars, and saves children.”
For domestic audience: Emphasize that properly funding the government and global aid protects our national security, moral leadership, and economy.
For international audience: Underscore U.S. commitment to humanitarianism without dividing riding U.S. taxpayers, and frame the Ukraine freeze package as a path to peace, reconstruction, and stability in Europe.
Use case study visuals: children in hunger zones; Ukraine frontline soldiers receiving defenses; government workers resuming critical functions after funding restored.
VI. Annexes (to attach)
Annex A: Clean CR draft (2 pp) with topline outlays, no policy riders.
Annex B: Cease-fire Framework Summary (5 pp) with map of contact lines, POW plan, monitoring structure, sanctions-snapback table.
Annex C: Humanitarian Surge Plan (3 pp) listing funding allocations by region, implementing partners (UNICEF, WFP, UNHCR, ICRC), logistic pathways, risk register.
Annex D: Communications Calendar & Talking Points (1 pp) for next 30 days.
Annex E: Metrics Dashboard Template (Excel-ready) for weekly White House Monitoring.
RECOMMENDATION:
Approve the above plan now, issue the presidential directive to OMB/NSC/Treasury/USAID, and schedule a 24-hour briefing tomorrow morning to finalize timelines and communications roll-out.